Democrats win big in Ohio on working-class issues, but delivering is the real test

Democrats scored major victories in Ohio in Tuesday's elections. The state elected a Democratic senator, eight Democrats to the House of Representatives, and its first Democratic governor in 16 years.

At its peak, the Mahoning Valley in north-eastern Ohio was the beating heart of the US steel economy — a hardscrabble, heavily unionized Democratic bastion. But de-industrialization, sparked by the mass closure of steel mills in the late 1970s, transformed the region.

Tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs disappeared, populations declined, and support for Democrats slowly faded. In 2020, Mahoning County voted for its first Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump, in a generation.

Historians and political scientists, however, say framing the wins as 'Ohio's working class has come home' is too simple.

Michael Pierce, a labor historian at the University of Arkansas, said the idea that Democrats 'lost' a monolithic block of voters in Ohio in the first place is a 'false narrative', adding that a lot of commentators confuse the white working class with the working class.

Vladimir Kogan, a political scientist at Ohio State University, said he is unsure what 'working class' even means, noting that blue-collar work, lacking a college degree and union membership are almost completely unrelated categories.

The winners include Amy Acton, soon to be the state's next governor; Sherrod Brown, the populist who lost his Senate seat two years ago; and Brian Poindexter, a union ironworker who ran on a 'workers first' platform.

Laura Bucci of St Joseph's University said the economic focus of Democratic campaigns 'met the moment' for blue-collar voters frustrated with sustained affordability issues, adding that everything has felt expensive and hard.

Jim Conrad, a retired school teacher in Columbus, said: 'I am an independent. I vote by the issues. I'm tired of billionaires. The gap between the wealthiest and the poor in this country has gotten bigger each year.'

David Stebenne, a historian at Ohio State, described two working classes: an 'upper' one of unionized steelworkers and autoworkers who could once afford houses, cars and college for their children, many of whom have sunk back downward, and a 'lower' working class in low-wage service jobs. Ohio's median household income, once close to the national figure, has fallen well below it, making rising fuel and food prices hit harder.

Acton spent the final days of her campaign describing herself the same way at every stop: 'scrappy', and from Youngstown. She has spoken about living in a tent as an unhoused 12-year-old, and drove herself around the state for most of the campaign while her Republican opponent Vivek Ramaswamy flew by private jet.

Trump visited Mahoning County in 2017 telling residents jobs would come back and factories would fill up. This week, amid growing frustration over the president's handling of the economy, Acton won the county 54 percent to 42 percent.

Brown framed his race as working Ohioans against billionaires and focused on datacenters, calling incumbent Republican senator Jon Husted 'the face of datacenters', blaming him for the 226 now operating in Ohio, and attacking their tax breaks and ties to soaring electricity bills.

Union membership in Ohio has fallen from about 36 percent of workers in the late 1970s to between 11 and 12 percent, according to Ohio State historian Raymond Irwin.

Not everyone is convinced the results mark a long-term shift. Kogan said there is a good chance this is a high-water mark for Democrats, recalling how the party's 2006 wave in Ohio was erased by the Tea Party in 2010.

Irwin suggested the true test will come next year, when voters who turned from Trump Republicanism to Brown and Acton start asking what they have gotten for it, noting they will not snap their fingers and get the lower costs they are hoping for.