Gen Z voters powered a Democratic wave, reversing the 2024 trend

In the 2026 midterm elections, voters under 30 backed Democrats by a margin of nearly 50 points. Exit polling shows a stunning reversal of 2024, when a large share of voters in the same age group swung toward Donald Trump. Democrats have done well in recent elections when they win young voters by a margin of at least 20 points; this time the margin was nearly 50.

In 2024, voters under 30 — long seen as part of the Democratic base — shifted right toward Trump, drawn by his pledge to improve their economic prospects. But in this year's midterms, the youngest generation of voters issued a strong rebuke of Republicans, taking another chance on Democrats and their change-focused message at a moment when many of them feel as though the American Dream is out of reach.

Americans ages 18 to 29 have a history of turning out at lower rates than older voters, and this year was no exception. Gen Z made up 11 percent of the total vote on Tuesday. However, where young Americans may have made the greatest difference is on the margins in House and Senate races where Democrats flipped seats.

The Texas Senate race is a key example. Democrat James Talarico won the state by 12 percentage points overall, but when looking at just Gen Z, he won it by 60 points. Speaking on election night in Austin, Texas, Talarico's win became a clear illustration of young voters' influence.

Democrats argue the party's strong slate of candidates helped drum up increased enthusiasm. But another motivating factor remains strong opposition to Trump. Throughout his second term, Gen Z increasingly soured on the president, with some arguing he failed to make good on a number of core campaign promises — from pledging to lower prices and repeatedly vowing 'no new wars,' to calling for a crackdown on federal corruption and the release of the Epstein files.

Much of that disappointment was reflected in exit polling. Economic issues were the top concern for a plurality of 18- to 29-year-olds, at 43 percent, and these voters expressed broad frustrations with Trump's handling of the issue. More than eight in ten said that Trump's policies have worsened economic conditions, with similar shares opposing his tariff strategy and the decision to go to war with Iran.

Early analysis from CIRCLE indicates that 15 percent of young people who backed Trump in 2024 voted for a Democratic House candidate in this year's midterms. Democrats made gains with some young voters that backed Trump two years ago, including white men and Latino men, two blocs that narrowly voted Republican in 2024 and then voted blue on Tuesday by double digits. Democratic candidates also narrowed the margins with young rural voters and people without college degrees.

Some of those gains may have been helped by young Trump voters who chose to sit this election out, but it is unclear how many of them there were. The midterm results underscore how neither of the two major parties owns Gen Z, according to John Della Volpe, a left-leaning pollster who has extensively studied the politics of young Americans.

Della Volpe, who runs the Harvard Youth Poll, notes that in the latest survey, released in October, there was a sizable enthusiasm gap between young Democrat and young Republican respondents. While half of Democrats said they definitely planned to vote, just a third of Republicans and less than a quarter of Independents said the same. 'The cohort of younger people in this cycle had a different set of experiences than the cohort of people two years ago, or four years before that,' he said. 'Every candidate, every party has to earn their votes.'

'I also think we should not over read what has happened,' he added. 'Clearly a significant historic rebuke on the party in office — that is obvious — however, I think we need to more fully, kind of understand, the contour of the electorate, who showed up and who did not show up.'

By 2028, Gen Z and millennial voters will make up more than half of the electorate, a demographic shift with huge implications for Democrats and the GOP. Elizabeth Matto, who serves as the director of the Center for Youth Political Participation, said young adults can make a difference. In her view, this generation of voters is no longer any party's guaranteed base — their support has to be earned every time.