New political equation ahead of December: cautious BNP, Tarique Rahman tells MPs to stay on the streets

A new political equation is taking shape in Bangladesh ahead of December. In the month of victory, the ruling BNP is taking a cautious position to run the government while maintaining political stability and dealing with possible unrest. The party has launched initiatives for organisational rebuilding, activating grassroots workers and reducing the distance with its long-time political allies.

At the same time, opposition parties including Jamaat-e-Islami and the National Citizen Party (NCP) are preparing to stay active on the streets with demands including the implementation of the July National Charter. Taken together, the centre of December's politics is former prime minister Sheikh Hasina's announcement of returning home, the future political position of the banned Awami League, the implementation of the July National Charter, local government elections and efforts to reach an understanding with political allies.

Sheikh Hasina's announcement of returning in December has created fresh discussion in the political arena. In an interview with the international news agency Reuters, she said she wished to return to Bangladesh and surrender before a court. According to the Reuters report, an application has been made on her behalf at the Bangladesh High Commission in Delhi for a new passport and national identity card. The government is verifying the authenticity and legal basis of the application.

The question of Sheikh Hasina's return was discussed at the BNP parliamentary party meeting last Monday. The meeting, held at the Parliament building, was chaired by Prime Minister and Leader of the House Tarique Rahman. Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed told the meeting that the government would take the necessary steps under the existing extradition treaty between Bangladesh and India.

Citing several responsible sources present at the meeting, it was learnt that the prime minister told party MPs, "The message is loud and clear, we are on the streets, we must stay on the streets, and every conspiracy must be confronted on the streets." The instruction from Prime Minister Tarique Rahman at yesterday's parliamentary party meeting to remain active on the streets signals the BNP's political preparation.

State Minister for Foreign Affairs Humayun Kabir said there is no scope to return with a new passport. If Sheikh Hasina wants to return, she must follow the legal process under the extradition treaty between Bangladesh and India.

BNP leaders are giving the highest priority to tackling what they call the "terrorist activities of the fascist Awami League". The role of the current opposition will be kept under watch in this regard. Several BNP leaders told the media that the opposition must have a political role, but if they shelter fascism, that will never be acceptable. The nation will not accept it.

BNP Standing Committee member Gayeshwar Chandra Roy said, "Sheikh Hasina must be held accountable for her past actions. The autocratic Awami League must also take responsibility for its past role. The people will not forgive them." He added, "The BNP wants justice, not revenge. Whoever the criminal is, he must be brought under the law."

On the question of Sheikh Hasina returning or not in December, BNP Chairperson's adviser Syed Moazzem Hossain Alal said, "A few cold waves are coming, that is the weather forecast. There is no other news." He said, "The BNP's party activities, increasing or decreasing, are an ongoing process. What is visible now is the fixing of candidates for local government elections, so that the elections at the local level are peaceful and the candidate we support is free of controversy."

Alal added, "We have no worry about what will or will not happen in December. In December, winter will come." Referring to the banned Awami League, he said, "In December they will again throw cocktails and set fire to buses here and there. The law-enforcement agencies will take action accordingly. I see no major ominous signal in politics."

Asked about the activities of Jamaat and the NCP, Alal said, "Their activities will continue. They are the opposition, and as the opposition they will criticise the government. We believe they are alert so that fascism does not return or get re-established. We also urge them not to do anything that would let fascism return or get any opportunity to return."

Political analysts say that alongside running the government, the BNP's big challenge is rebuilding its organisational structure. After forming the government following a long time out of power, a section of the party's leaders and workers has become busy with government and administrative work. At the same time, competition for local leadership, discontent over posts and questions of organisational discipline have come to the fore. In this situation, preparation for the national council has become important for the BNP. Rebuilding the central committee, the standing committee, the advisory council and the associate organisations is getting priority.

Recently, new committees of the Dhaka Metropolitan BNP, North and South, were announced. Responsible leaders said committee rebuilding is an ongoing process. The committees of associate organisations including Chhatra Dal, Jubo Dal and Swechchhasebak Dal are also being rebuilt, according to reports.

Another important political calculation for the BNP is rebuilding relations with its long-time movement allies. After forming the government, some discontent has emerged among the allies over political evaluation, promises made before the election and the question of state reform. In this situation, the BNP has taken the initiative to hold meetings with the allied parties in late November or early December. A possible meeting with Prime Minister and BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman could discuss the BNP's 31 points for state reform, the July National Charter, constitutional amendment, local government elections and the future political programme.

On the other side, the 11-party alliance led by Jamaat-e-Islami is moving ahead with a strategy to pressure the government with demands for the implementation of the July National Charter, enforcement of the referendum verdict and constitutional reform. Plans for a long march, divisional rallies, mass contact and Dhaka-centred programmes are also in place. The NCP and other political parties are also active in the field with their own programmes.

Political analysts say local government elections could become important in December's political calculations. With union parishad elections followed by municipality, upazila, district council and city corporation elections ahead, parties are preparing to select candidates. For the BNP, this is an opportunity to test its grassroots organisational strength. But multiple leaders seeking candidacy in the same area, rebel candidates and local feuds could create challenges for the party.