Strong El Nino could keep temperatures high next year too, World Meteorological Organization warns

2026 is set to join the list of the warmest years on record. Scientists are offering no assurance that the intensity of the heat will ease when the year ends. Instead, long-term climate change has now been joined by a strong El Nino, which could keep global temperatures high next year as well and raise the risk of extreme weather.

The warning comes from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Its State of the Climate Update 2026 paints this worrying picture of the climate. The report was published on the organization's website on 9 November, on the occasion of the COP31 climate summit.

The report says the ongoing El Nino is almost certain to last at least until February 2027. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said this El Nino could become one of the strongest in recorded history.

According to Saulo, the extra heat released from the ocean could contribute to rising global temperatures and extreme weather next year as well. But El Nino itself does not add new heat to the Earth. During El Nino, part of the heat stored in the Pacific Ocean spreads into the atmosphere, raising the global average temperature and increasing the risk of extreme weather.

El Nino is a natural climate pattern in which the surface waters of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become unusually warm. It changes wind and rainfall patterns. Its effects reach far beyond the Pacific, touching temperatures and rainfall in many distant regions. Some places face drought, others floods, and still others a higher risk of intense heat.

According to the WMO report, after the La Nina pattern ended early in 2026, water temperatures in the region began rising rapidly. In a designated El Nino monitoring region, sea surface temperatures in March were 0.2 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. By August the gap had grown to 2.5 degrees. It could reach 3.7 degrees between October and December, the forecast says. The comparison baseline is the 1993 to 2009 average.

But how strong El Nino is does not by itself determine where its effects will fall. Which part of the Pacific warms, at what time of year, and the state of other weather factors also matter. Likewise, the scale of damage depends on people's livelihoods, infrastructure and capacity to cope with disasters in each region.

The effects of El Nino are arriving at a time when the Earth is going through long-term warming. Human activities, including burning fossil fuels, are increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, trapping extra heat on the planet. Added to El Nino, that could push global temperatures higher still.

The report says that from January to September 2026, the world's average surface temperature was about 1.47 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average. The year is set to be one of the warmest on record. According to the WMO Secretary-General, the last four years were the warmest in the 177-year history of observations.

Other indicators of climate change are also cause for concern. Concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere reached record levels in 2025, and immediate measurements show they kept rising in 2026. Ocean heat content set a new record in 2025, and preliminary data show ocean warming continued in 2026.

The report also says the amount of water stored in groundwater, soil, rivers, reservoirs, glaciers and snow has been falling worldwide since 2014. In 2025, the amount of water stored on land was below normal in 42 percent of the areas assessed around the world, against a long-term average rate of 25 percent.

This water shortage is affecting agriculture, food production and people's lives. Regions that depend on rain-fed farming and were already food-insecure are most at risk. As El Nino changes weather patterns, the risk of drought, heavy rain and other extreme weather could rise in various regions, affecting human health, agricultural production and food security.

The combination of climate change and El Nino could further raise health risks. Higher temperatures, drought and heavy rain raise the risk of heat-related illness and death. The risks of wildfire smoke and air pollution, malnutrition, food insecurity and various accidents could also increase. At the same time, the risk of waterborne and vector-borne diseases such as cholera, malaria and dengue could rise. The World Health Organization (WHO) has classified the health risk from this situation as an emergency for the first time.

The report says the effects are already visible. In Europe, preliminary estimates put excess deaths from heatwaves, drought and wildfires at more than 30,000. At least eight countries set national temperature records. Agriculture, energy and transport were also hit hard by these disasters.

In April this year, a heatwave in India exposed an estimated 146.5 million people to extreme heat. In late August, a flash flood caused by a Himalayan glacier outburst struck Nepal, killing more than 1,300 people. It also had a major impact on the country's economy. Tropical cyclones in various countries have also caused widespread destruction and loss of life.

According to the WMO, one of the most visible effects of climate change is the melting of glaciers. In 2025, the world's glaciers lost more than 400 gigatonnes of ice, raising sea levels by about 1 millimetre. The organization says the ice lost in 2025 would have been enough to fill five Olympic swimming pools every second of the year.

But this global forecast cannot say exactly how hot Bangladesh will be next year. The report gives no separate temperature forecast for Bangladesh. The scientists' warning is mainly about the combined effects of global warming and El Nino, and they say the impact could vary by region. Regular weather monitoring, updated forecasts and advance preparation based on risk may therefore be the important way to reduce damage.