Red counties hosting data centers swung toward Democrats in midterms, analysis finds

Deep-red counties that host large data centers, or have proposed projects, shifted further toward Democrats in last week's midterm elections, according to a new analysis. The analysis, from the conservative artificial-intelligence safety group Humans First, was first published by Fox News Digital.

Humans First's analysis examined public election returns and data-center project records in 1,540 counties across 16 states. It found that counties hosting large data centers shifted an additional 2.2 percentage points toward Democrats compared with non-host counties in the same states.

The pattern appeared in 14 of the 16 states and in 25 of the 27 governor and Senate races examined.

Restricting the analysis to deep-red counties — those President Donald Trump won by at least 20 points in 2024 — produced a 2.1-point raw gap between counties hosting large data centers and comparable counties without projects. Among deep-red counties with projects still in the proposal stage, the gap was 1.1 percentage points after accounting for past voting patterns, rural or urban status, population size, racial and ethnic makeup and recent voting trends.

The group identified 114 proposed large data center projects across 92 deep-red counties, potentially setting up more local fights. The memo found that Republican vote totals fell an additional 1.1 percent in deep-red host counties compared with comparable counties without large data centers, while Democratic vote totals showed no significant change.

The memo cautioned that its findings show an association rather than proof that data centers caused voters to change their behavior. County-level results also cannot determine whether Republicans switched their votes or simply stayed home.

Humans First Chairwoman Amy Kremer told Fox News Digital that people engage politically when issues affect them personally. In her words, there is nothing more personal than your pocketbook, your health care, your kids and family, your home and your community. A data center involves all of those things, which is why she believes these counties moved away from Republicans.

Humans First's September Data Center Revolt bus tour made 35 stops in 27 states, including 14 stops in the states covered by the analysis. Nine of those stops were in deep-red counties, all of which hosted a large data center project. Those nine counties shifted 2.2 points further toward Democrats after the analysis accounted for its controls, compared with a 0.75-point shift among deep-red host counties overall. The group said those same nine counties showed no comparable gap from 2020 to 2024.

However, the findings do not establish whether the group's visits influenced voting behavior or whether those counties already had stronger opposition to data center development.

Separately, voters favored restrictions on data center development or rejected measures supporting such projects in 46 of 47 local data center ballot measures in 2026, according to Ballotpedia. The measures included different types of proposals, including restrictions on development and advisory questions.

Kremer said this is a local control issue, stressing that Republicans should focus on protecting property rights and ensuring people have control over how things affect their lives. In her words, whether it is AI technology or the infrastructure needed to build AI data centers, the American people have not had a seat at the table.

She added that in many places across the country, developers and companies have gone in and cut deals behind closed doors, under a cloak of darkness, using nondisclosure agreements and shell companies. By the time people in the community find out about the project, it is too late to stop it.

Kremer said these projects affect the quality of life and how much money people have. They can increase the cost of electricity and water, while tax abatements are given to trillion-dollar companies — some of the wealthiest companies in the world. That is money coming out of the pockets of the American people, she said.

The concerns come amid a broader debate over how data centers should pay for the electricity and grid infrastructure they require. The Energy Department estimates data centers used 4.7 percent of US electricity in 2024 and, in its reference case, could account for 11.8 percent by 2030.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has directed regional grid operators to address safeguards against shifting the costs of serving large electricity users onto other customers. Those developments do not establish that data centers caused higher household rates in the counties examined by Humans First.

Tax incentives also vary by state. The National Conference of State Legislatures reported that at least 38 states offer incentives specifically for data centers, including equipment-tax exemptions and, in some states, exemptions involving electricity or property taxes.

The Data Center Coalition, an industry trade group, says such incentives are similar to those offered to other capital-intensive industries and argues that data centers generate jobs, investment and tax revenue.

Humans First does not support a nationwide or statewide moratorium on data centers, but Kremer said individual communities should be free to approve or reject projects. In her words, if a community comes together and votes for a moratorium, that is its prerogative, and if a community wants a data center, that is its prerogative as well. It is all about local control.