Trump demands repayment for Iran war costs from Israel and Gulf allies

US President Donald Trump has said Israel and America’s Gulf allies must repay the United States for the cost of its war on Iran. In an interview with CBS News correspondent Ross Douthat that aired on Sunday, he said the countries the US protected during the war would pay us any and all costs we had for the war.

We’re going to get all that money back, Trump said. They’re going to do it, 100 percent. Because without us, they wouldn’t exist.

For the first time, he explicitly spoke of compensation from Israel, which he said wouldn’t exist without US military intervention. We decapitated their [Iran’s] nuclear arsenal, he said. If I didn’t do that, there would be no Israel right now. Israel would be gone.

Trump had previously said he would seek repayment from Gulf countries that benefit from the US military presence around the Strait of Hormuz, where US forces have been escorting vessels. At a press briefing in July, he named Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait as countries that should pay.

We’re protecting a very rich portion of the world, we’re spending money, and so what we’ve done is we’re going to be reimbursed for protection, he said at the time.

Gulf countries, however, have said they were not even informed about Washington’s plans, and have since borne the brunt of Iran’s retaliatory attacks. As members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, they have called for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict.

The war has cost the US $47.1bn as of mid-October, according to the US military. But the full cost is likely to be even higher, as that figure excludes the cost of repairing damage to US military bases across the Middle East.

The Congressional Budget Office estimated in September that the conflict would carry an additional cost of $2bn to $3bn for each month it continues.

Analysts say Trump’s comments are best understood as political signalling rather than a serious policy proposal. Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Programme, said the demand should be read in that light.

Bader al-Saif, an assistant professor of history at Kuwait University and associate fellow at Chatham House, said Gulf states in particular are likely to take Trump’s comments with a grain of salt. I think what [Trump] stated on an American news channel was for domestic consumption, and I think that’s how most of the Gulf states will take it, he said.

Stefan Lukas, an analyst specialising in Middle East and North Africa security and foreign policy, said the president has been looking for someone to blame and has been doing everything in his power to divert attention from the midterm election results. In his view, it is unlikely Washington’s Arab allies will face large compensation payments or anything similar.

Lukas suggested, however, that Trump could be more serious about seeking economic concessions from Israel, particularly after announcing that the country would no longer receive US aid after the end of this year. That is partly because, from Trump’s perspective, Israel pushed him into a disastrous war with Iran.

Al-Saif said Trump could be very innovative in defining what counts as repayment, potentially pointing to existing trade agreements or investment pledges from the Gulf. Farid Boussaid, an assistant professor in Middle East politics at the University of Amsterdam, said Washington could push for further Gulf investment and present it as compensation.

The repayment demand comes after Trump and his Republican party took a drubbing in the midterm elections, which the president has conceded was partly due to public discontent over the Iran war. He has since declared the war effectively over militarily, while defending his decision to start the conflict as a very good decision.