Tinubu launches re-election manifesto, with regaining voters' trust the big challenge

Nigeria's President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has launched his re-election manifesto, promising to grow the economy, tackle insecurity and address housing shortages.

The manifesto, launched on 10 November by his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), is titled From Reform to Prosperity. The plan targets 6% annual economic growth by 2031, 78,000 additional security personnel and 200,000 affordable homes.

Nigeria is due to hold a general election in January 2027, with Peter Obi and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar among Tinubu's main challengers.

Elected in 2023, Tinubu undertook first-term economic reforms including the removal of fuel subsidies, the harmonisation of official and parallel foreign exchange rates, and tax reforms in Africa's largest oil producer. The reforms, although considered necessary by some economists, have been painful for many Nigerians.

Joshua Osiyemi, who heads Tracka, a platform launched by the BudgIT Foundation, said fuel prices went up and everything Nigerians consume skyrocketed. Referring to a survey by his organisation, he said most Nigerian families say they cannot survive on 10,000 naira ($7.40) a day.

Analysis by Nigeria's International Centre for Investigative Reporting (ICIR) found that the price of imported rice rose by 184% between May 2023, when Tinubu took office, and October 2025. Other staples, including beans, garri (cassava flour) and bread, also recorded substantial increases.

In a sign the reforms might be starting to pay off, SBM Intelligence found the cost of preparing a pot of jollof rice fell by 11.5% between June and September 2026, the sharpest decline in the 10 years of its Jollof Index. However, this has not translated into significant relief for most households. Ikenna Okonkwo, head of research at SBM Intelligence, said Nigerians spend more and more of their income on basics.

The reforms were praised by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Nigeria's headline inflation stood at 14% in September 2026, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, down from a high of 34% in 2024. The gap between official and parallel exchange rates has also narrowed.

Tinubu has said the removal of fuel subsidies freed up more than one trillion naira ($740m) in government resources in just the first two months. He has recently said he will work to reduce fuel costs. His administration also announced a 125bn naira intervention package for small businesses, including grants for smaller enterprises and loans for manufacturers.

Analysts say that for Nigerians to feel meaningful improvements, reforms will need to go beyond the promises outlined in the manifesto.