Hasina return signals, bus arson and Victory Month: Bangladesh prepares for a December shadowed by multiple anxieties
Last year's December was one of the most turbulent months in Bangladesh's recent history. Just before the February election, young political leader Sharif Osman Hadi was shot and died on December 18. After his death, Prothom Alo, The Daily Star and cultural organisations such as Chhayanaut and Udichi were attacked by unruly crowds. Then on December 25, Tarique Rahman returned home after 17 years in exile. Five days later his mother, former prime minister Khaleda Zia, died. A year on, December is approaching again, this time with a different kind of uncertainty.
The anniversary of Hadi's death and of the attacks on media and cultural institutions is not the only subject of discussion. Several political and diplomatic tensions are building at the same time, and their combined effect could make the coming December quite difficult for Bangladesh. The biggest uncertainty has formed around Sheikh Hasina. She has signalled that she may return to Bangladesh in December and surrender before the court.
On November 9, the UK-based law firm Matrix Law Chambers wrote to the acting high commissioner of Bangladesh in New Delhi requesting a new passport and national identity card for Sheikh Hasina. The matter came up the same day at a meeting of the BNP's parliamentary party. At the meeting, Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed said that if Sheikh Hasina wants to return, the government will take the necessary steps under the existing extradition treaty with India. Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, who chaired the meeting, made no direct comment on the matter.
Earlier that day, State Minister for Foreign Affairs Humayun Kabir described the request for a new passport and NID as 'completely ridiculous'. He said Bangladesh wants Sheikh Hasina handed over under the extradition treaty, rather than allowed to return as an ordinary passenger. On November 10, the prime minister's information and broadcasting adviser, Zahed Ur Rahman, said Sheikh Hasina had not herself applied for a passport and that the government sees no legal obstacle to bringing her back through extradition.
The International Crimes Tribunal's chief prosecutor, Md Aminul Islam, said there is no legal scope to give her a new passport. By not appealing within the stipulated 30 days she has lost her legal opportunity, and her death sentence will be carried out as soon as she returns to the country. Sheikh Hasina, sentenced to death for crimes against humanity in the 2024 mass uprising, has continued to deny the allegations. With a section of the country still supporting her, she remains a controversial and influential name in Bangladeshi politics.
The country's security situation has become particularly worrying in recent days. Between November 7 and 9, at least 19 buses were set on fire. According to Dhaka Metropolitan Police (DMP), 49 crude bomb explosions took place in the capital in those three days. On November 10, a further 22 incidents of arson and crude bomb explosions were reported across the country. One person was killed that day and at least 10 vehicles were set on fire. Police allege that leaders and activists of the banned Awami League and its associate organisations are carrying out these attacks to create instability ahead of December.
December's political significance also matters here. It is Bangladesh's Victory Month, and it will be the first Victory Day under the current BNP government. Politics in Bangladesh has long been strained over the spirit and history of the 1971 Liberation War. The 2024 mass uprising has made the debate over the country's political past and future more complicated still. How the new government observes Victory Day, and how the opposition parties respond, could create new tensions.
The first anniversary of the attacks on newspaper offices and cultural institutions raises another question: has anything really changed since that night? The attacks of December 18 and 19 were not mere vandalism. An investigation by The Daily Star and Dismislab found that hatred against newspaper offices and cultural organisations was spread through online incitement before the attacks, yet the threats, made openly, were ignored for hours. The question now is how many of those responsible have been brought to justice, and whether journalists, editors and cultural activists feel safer than before.
All of this is happening against the backdrop of an uneasy relationship with India. Since Sheikh Hasina left Bangladesh in August 2024, her stay in India has created major strain in relations between the two countries. Dhaka has formally sought her extradition, but New Delhi has not handed her over. Meanwhile, BJP MP Nishikant Dubey recently claimed that Noakhali, Sylhet and the port of Chattogram went to Bangladesh by mistake during Partition and that India should recover them. Although he was not speaking as a spokesperson of the Indian government, other Indian politicians have made similar statements before.
Each of these problems would be easier to handle separately. Sheikh Hasina's possible return is a legal and diplomatic matter, the recent attacks are a question of security, and Victory Month and the anniversary of the media attacks are matters of political responsibility and history. But in December these events will not arrive separately; they will all happen together. With all these questions in mind, the BNP government is about to pass its first December since coming to power. More important than what happens this month will be how the government handles the situation.
Bangladesh has passed through many difficult times before, but this December could test several of the country's important institutions at once. The real fear is not being unable to handle any single incident. The bigger risk is that these events could inflame one another. By the end of December it may become clear how much Bangladesh has changed in the past year, and which problems remain unsolved.
