Delhi Tried and Failed to Send Sheikh Hasina to a Third Country; Two Conditions Hinted for Her Return
Sheikh Hasina has been sheltering in India for more than two and a quarter years, since the July 2024 mass uprising in Bangladesh. In the meantime, a Bangladeshi court has sentenced her to death, and a few months ago she told the Reuters news agency in an interview that she would return home this December. She remains firm on that announcement to this day, although she has not yet given any specific date for returning.
The Indian government, her 'host country', has made no official comment on Sheikh Hasina's announcement of returning home. At the same time, it has kept pending for nearly two years Bangladesh's request to hand over the former prime minister under the prisoner extradition treaty. When India's foreign ministry is asked about this, its spokesperson has repeatedly said it is a legal matter and will be resolved legally.
Bangladesh's government requested India through a 'note verbale', or diplomatic message, to hand Sheikh Hasina over as early as December 2024. Reminders to that effect were sent several times afterwards. India has not responded to that request to this day — it has said neither yes nor no.
A published report examining how Delhi views the whole matter says the simple answer is that Sheikh Hasina did not make this announcement on her own, without India's tacit consent or approval. In other words, the announcement came because Sheikh Hasina and Delhi both agreed on the matter.
The report says Sheikh Hasina's presence in Delhi has become an increasingly embarrassing issue for the Indian government. Not only in India-Bangladesh bilateral relations, but internationally too, India has to hear that it is sheltering day after day a convicted criminal accused of genocide. The best solution for India would probably have been if she could have moved to a third country. But although Delhi has talked with various countries repeatedly in the past, those attempts did not succeed for various reasons, the report says.
As a result, India now believes that Sheikh Hasina trying to return to Bangladesh and facing trial there is the only realistic option, according to the report. Policymakers in Delhi also agree that there is no alternative to Sheikh Hasina herself returning home if the Awami League, India's long-time ally, is to be politically revived in Bangladesh. The Indian government regularly arranges debriefing sessions for foreign guests sheltered in India; Sheikh Hasina is no exception, and India's attitude was conveyed to her in those sessions. Only after the two sides agreed on the matter did Sheikh Hasina publicly announce her wish to return home in December, the report says.
Asked why, if India truly wants Sheikh Hasina to return to Bangladesh, it cannot simply accept the extradition request, Indian observers say Sheikh Hasina is a long-trusted and tested foreign friend of India, and there is no question of putting her on a Bangladeshi plane as a prisoner in that way. Bangladesh's state minister for foreign affairs has said there are precedents of prisoners being sent back from abroad 'even in handcuffs'. But the report says it is beyond imagination that India would do anything like that in Sheikh Hasina's case.
Doing so would send the wrong message to India's allied politicians abroad, the report adds; no leader in Nepal, Sri Lanka or the Maldives, for example, would ever trust India again. Besides, when Sheikh Hasina set foot on Indian soil on 5 August 2024, she was not a convict sentenced by a court — she was the just-departed prime minister of a neighbouring country. In India's eyes, that 'status' of hers has not changed. The India-Bangladesh prisoner extradition treaty contains many legal loopholes that can be used to keep a request pending day after day, and India is doing exactly that with Bangladesh's request, the report notes.
Government officials in Delhi have hinted at two main conditions for Sheikh Hasina's return, according to the report. First, Sheikh Hasina arrived in India on a Bangladesh military aircraft — so the Bangladesh army itself will have to do the job of taking her back. That process could be by air, or by land; meaning Bangladesh could send a military aircraft to take her from Delhi, or its army could receive her at a point on the land border. India is also ready to make whatever 'logistical' preparations are needed on Delhi's side for that.
The second condition is that Bangladesh must guarantee that Sheikh Hasina will get the opportunity to appeal against her death sentence and that her trial on July massacre charges will start afresh. India, however, wants to be extremely careful that this demand is not seen as foreign interference in Bangladesh's own judicial system, and is making no public comment on it. In the words of an official at the foreign ministry in Delhi: 'We can never knowingly push her forward to be hanged. Rather, we would want to ensure that she gets the opportunity of a fresh, fair trial.' India would also want to ensure that the trial takes place under the watch of the international community and global media, the official said. Delhi has been holding behind-the-scenes talks with Dhaka for several months to pave the way for Sheikh Hasina's return by meeting these two conditions, the report says.
On how important the two countries' armies are in this, the report says that when India's ambassador in Dhaka, Dinesh Trivedi, came to Delhi on a somewhat sudden, unscheduled visit in the first week of October, he met not only Prime Minister Modi but also the army chief, General Dhiraj Seth. A top Indian military source told the BBC at the time: 'There is normally no reason for our high commissioner in Bangladesh to come to Delhi and meet the army chief, unless there is a special reason in a special situation.' He hinted that the reason was nothing other than ensuring an active role for the army in Sheikh Hasina's return home.
Over the past two to two and a half years, whatever the ups and downs in Dhaka-Delhi bilateral relations, regular contact has continued between the top leaderships of the two countries' armies, without any break, the report says. India's immediate past army chief, General Manoj Pande, and his predecessors have also publicly said several times that 'from before July 2024 until today, they have spoken every week with Bangladesh's army chief, General Waker-Uz-Zaman.' The source indicated that India also wants the Bangladesh army to take charge of Sheikh Hasina's protection and security if she returns. He said at the time: 'India will also want to ensure that Sheikh Hasina's protection and security are not put at risk if she returns home. Because, like it or not, that responsibility has at this moment fallen on India's shoulders.'
Whether Sheikh Hasina will actually be able to return in December is very difficult to answer directly at this moment, the report says. But several officials at Delhi's home and foreign ministries have said they believe that whatever Bangladesh may say publicly about wanting Sheikh Hasina back, Dhaka does not really want the former prime minister to return. In the officials' words: 'From the fuel sector crisis to garment workers' protests — the Bangladesh government is already beset by many problems. In this situation, they fear political instability in the country could increase if Sheikh Hasina returns; that is what we think.' On top of that, there are many 'ifs' and 'buts' in Sheikh Hasina's return. The likelihood that all the pieces of this jigsaw puzzle will fit together — and that too within the next two to three weeks — is considered quite remote at this moment. So unless events take a very dramatic turn soon, most observers in Delhi are of the opinion that the probability of Sheikh Hasina's return home in December is slim, the report says.
On India's diplomatic gains and losses in the whole matter, the report says the reality is that returning Sheikh Hasina the way India wants is difficult — Delhi knew that from day one. Even so, Sheikh Hasina announced her return, and she did so with Delhi's consent. The reason, Delhi believes, is that if she ultimately cannot return now, India has nothing much to lose either. In the words of an official at South Block in Delhi: 'We will then at least be able to say that Sheikh Hasina herself wanted to return — but it was not possible because Bangladesh made various excuses.' At the same time, Awami League leaders and activists in Bangladesh also feel greatly energised by Sheikh Hasina's return announcement; since India wants the Awami League to return to Bangladesh's political landscape, Delhi considers that a positive side of the announcement too. It is hard to say where Sheikh Hasina will be on 31 December this year — but if she ultimately remains on Indian soil, Delhi believes it will then have extra arguments at hand to 'justify' her presence, the report says.
