After GOP midterm rout, all eyes on Rubio’s speech for 2028 clues

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will deliver a major speech in Washington, D.C. on Friday, following the Republican Party’s heavy losses in the midterm elections. His roughly 45-minute address, the Barbara Olson Memorial Lecture at the Federalist Society’s National Lawyers Convention, is his first major speech apart from his diplomatic duties, and many are watching for how he charts a path forward as the 2028 presidential race draws closer.

Attendee Isaiah McKinney said: “I think it will be an interesting speech to see what he says post midterms. I’m expecting him to discuss both the successes and failures of the administration and what his plans are moving forward — especially as the secretary of state. I hope he addresses the foreign policy implications and how he thinks foreign policy played a role into that, into the election results.”

Previous speakers of the Barbara Olson Memorial Lecture include former Attorney General Bill Barr and The Free Press founder Bari Weiss. The annual conference attracts prominent lawyers affiliated with the conservative movement.

But the question weighing heavily on attendees is whether Rubio is still planning to run for president someday. Rachel Paulose, a former US attorney and general counsel at the Upper Midwest Law Center, said: “There are a lot of people in the room who are going to be wondering if he’s still planning on running for president someday. That will be a question that will be top of mind for a lot of people.”

Republicans lost a net 41 House seats and eight Senate seats in the midterms, with Alaska’s Senate race still undecided, marking the largest simultaneous loss in both chambers of Congress for Republicans in a midterm election since 1958.

President Donald Trump has partly blamed the losses on voters’ opposition to the Iran war, and Vice President JD Vance was more direct about the war’s impact on the election results. Rubio has yet to weigh in.

John Shu, a legal commentator who served in the administrations of former Presidents George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush, said: “The fact of the matter is that the Republicans got blown out pretty well in the recent election.” He said Rubio could also talk about the budgetary process and what the Democratic House and Senate will do regarding funding of the State Department. Shu said Rubio could also address US strikes on suspected drug cartels off the coast of Venezuela in fall 2025, which drew sharp criticism from Democratic lawmakers. “I don’t know that he’s going to address the domestic policies. I mean, he’s the secretary of state,” Shu said.

Trump has previously floated a 2028 ticket pairing Vance and Rubio, and has also joked about who would top the ticket. Iowa Solicitor General Eric Wessan said: “I don’t know anything about who’s going to run in 2028, but what I appreciate about Secretary Rubio is he is traveling all around the country and all around the world to talk about the importance of American values, what binds us, what brings us all together, and the importance of our Constitution.”

Rubio’s address at the Mayflower Hotel follows a trip to Paris this week for G-7 meetings focused on Iran, Ukraine and other international challenges.

Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, was first elected to the US Senate representing Florida in 2010 and served until 2025, when Trump tapped him to become secretary of state. He ran for president in 2016, dropping out of the race after losing his home-state primary in Florida. Paulose said: “There are people who have worked for him, who’ve campaigned for him, who’ve believed in him for a very long time and who’ve seen him at his best, but I also think that there’s a real opportunity for him to deliver a positive message and a path forward for the movement.”