Cut off from Europe, Russia will have to rewire its Arctic gas trade toward Asia

An EU ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports starting Jan. 1, 2027 will force Moscow to find new buyers for exports from Yamal, its flagship Arctic project, and new ways to ship the gas.

Yamal's LNG — gas cooled into a liquid so it can travel by ship — goes west through the Kara and Barents seas, around northern Norway and into European waters. Between January and October 2026, 81 percent of Yamal's recorded deliveries were destined for Europe as companies scrambled to get ahead of the upcoming ban, according to new analysis by the NGO Urgewald.

Europe's bill for that period is estimated at €8.7 billion, already above Urgewald's estimate of €7.2 billion for all of 2025.

The ban will end the long-term contracts that still tie Yamal to Europe. Russia will have to redirect the gas, most likely to buyers in Asia, and reorganize the shipping network to reach them. Longer voyages mean higher costs and fewer trips per tanker each year because of the distance.

The LNG trade "is going to look completely different," said Malte Humpert, senior fellow and founder of the think tank Arctic Institute. The ban gives Moscow "a bigger incentive" to find another route, he said. "It's not easy. It's not cheap. It's very slow," but Russia will "figure it out."

An increase in black market LNG trade could be one way out. A classic shadow fleet has not been needed so far, since Yamal is not under sanctions, said Sebastian Rötters, sanctions campaigner at Urgewald.

Nor is a shadow fleet well suited to the job, analysts say. Such fleets typically use old, unregistered oil tankers that can easily disguise their movements. On the other hand, there are fewer LNG carriers globally and they follow a limited number of routes, making them easier to track, said Martin Vladimirov, a senior analyst at the Center for the Study of Democracy, a think tank that follows EU sanctions policy.

One possible workaround is a "virtual swap." Russia could sell more gas to countries such as Turkey or China, which could then sell more of their own or other countries' gas to Europe. That would preserve Russia's income even as its LNG is barred from European ports, Vladimirov said.

But even if Moscow finds buyers, it still has to get the LNG to them. That means Russian ships unable to access Europe will need to rebuild their logistics chains to sail farther or transfer their cargoes to other ships elsewhere before sailing on to alternative markets.

Officials are already gearing up to confront the anticipated increase in black market activity. The matter requires "more attention on the European level," said Lithuanian Energy Minister Lukas Savickas, whose government will helm the EU's six-month rotating presidency from January. That means a holistic approach that steps up monitoring of interconnection points, pipelines and ports across the EU rather than focusing on a single point.