South China Sea code of conduct pact unlikely at Manila ASEAN summit, analysts say

A long-awaited code of conduct pact between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China for the disputed South China Sea is unlikely to materialise during the bloc's annual gathering of leaders in Manila this week, analysts and officials say.

The agreement would aim to manage tensions and prevent conflict at sea. But talks have dragged on for more than 20 years. In 2023, foreign ministers agreed to work towards finalising the accord within three years.

That deadline fell on 2026, the year the Philippines took its turn as chair of ASEAN. Under its leadership, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said negotiators have met at least once a month. But they have fallen short of arriving at a consensus ahead of the summit.

DFA Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro said on Saturday that 80 percent of the document itself is finished, adding that some salient points still need to be ironed out. She has previously said geographical scope is one of the contentious issues. Beijing insists it has jurisdiction over nearly the entire South China Sea despite a 2016 international ruling invalidating that claim.

The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia also have overlapping territorial claims. Half of the world's merchant ships pass through the South China Sea.

Tensions between Manila and Beijing have escalated since Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr took office in 2022. The China Coast Guard has repeatedly deployed water cannon against Philippine vessels, maritime confrontations have resulted in collisions and, on one occasion, a Filipino soldier lost a finger.

With just days before world leaders were due to arrive in Manila, diplomats from both sides stepped in. In a phone call, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Philippine counterpart Lazaro to rein in politicians. Lazaro described the conversation as frank and constructive.

Lucio Pitlo, past president of the Philippine Association for Chinese Studies, said the last-ditch diplomatic effort had achieved its objective and Chinese Premier Li Qiang is now attending the ASEAN Leaders' Summit in Manila. Despite this, Pitlo shares pessimism about leaders reaching a conclusion to the code of conduct negotiations.

Pitlo said that with concerns about trade protectionism and disruption in supply chains, economic issues will be very high on the agenda, and getting the code of conduct done will be a tall order.

Aries Arugay, a political scientist at the University of the Philippines, said the Philippines cannot win either way: a good document would draw accusations of railroading, while a bad document would make the Marcos Jr administration look like a weak government.