ASEAN Summit in Manila: Energy Crisis, South China Sea and Tariff War on the Agenda
The leaders of Southeast Asia's ASEAN bloc meet in the Philippine capital Manila this week. The summit, running from November 15 to 17, will be attended by US President Donald Trump and several other world leaders.
The 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations comprises Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia and East Timor, with a combined population of nearly 694 million, or 8.4 percent of the world's population. The bloc aims to establish a single market, although it cannot impose decisions on its members. This week's meeting is expected to be the final summit of the year.
The biggest issue at the summit is the energy crisis. The import-dependent ASEAN countries continue to bear the brunt of oil and gas shortages caused by the US-Israel war on Iran, which has hit their economies hard.
The Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia are among the countries most vulnerable to the energy disruptions in the Gulf. Manila declared a state of national energy emergency in March.
Millions of ASEAN citizens also live and work in the Middle East, where the war threatens their safety and earnings. Asian countries are also worried the conflict could spill into the Strait of Malacca, the narrow waterway between Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore.
The United States' tariff war will also be on the table. ASEAN countries have been hit with tariff hikes of 10 to 12.5 percent since the beginning of President Donald Trump's second term in the White House, prompting the bloc to strengthen trade relationships elsewhere.
Disputes over the South China Sea are another major agenda item. China and four ASEAN members - Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam - as well as Taiwan, have been locked in decades of territorial standoffs in the busy waterway. The area is important because it is believed to host undersea deposits of oil and gas.
Since 2005 the bloc has been negotiating a code of conduct with China to discourage aggression and prevent major clashes, but the negotiations have often stalled. In 2023 the two sides agreed to speed things up and release a finished draft this year. At least 10 rounds of talks have been held this year, led by Malaysia, with a final round in October. Analysts, however, doubt a definite conclusion will be reached at this week's summit, meaning talks could continue into next year.
Late last year, armed clashes broke out between two ASEAN member states along an 800-kilometre contested border area, and over competing claims to sacred sites such as the Preah Vihear Shiva temple. At least 150 people were reported killed and nearly one million displaced.
ASEAN members, as well as China and the US, intervened, leading to talks. A ceasefire has been in place since December, but the wider border dispute remains unresolved, and the bloc is calling for more dialogue and the participation of third-party observers.
The ongoing civil war in Myanmar, which has compounded the Rohingya refugee crisis, is also at the top of the agenda as the bloc pushes for the restoration of democracy. Multiple rebel forces, some of them ethnic-based armed groups, have been fighting the military government since the February 2021 coup. ASEAN has restricted Myanmar's participation at important summits to non-political representatives as concerns about violence and a humanitarian crisis grow. The bloc's five-point peace plan, launched in April 2021 and calling for dialogue and improved humanitarian access, has failed to alleviate the situation.
Months of widespread wildfires in drought-hit Indonesia have scorched an estimated 2.88 million hectares and resulted in at least 3,500 deaths. The resulting haze has severely affected not only Indonesia's residents but also those in neighbouring Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and East Timor. Jakarta has faced criticism for failing to respond effectively, but the government has defended its approach, saying thousands of responders have been deployed.
