Ultra-Orthodox Conscription Question Becomes the Biggest Issue in Israel's Election

Israel heads towards its October 27 election amid several crises at once — the fallout of wars on multiple fronts, demands for accountability over security failures, and anxiety over the cost of living. Yet one question has come to overshadow every other issue on the campaign trail: should the country's ultra-Orthodox Jewish minority have to serve in the military?

By current estimates, around 80,000 ultra-Orthodox, or Haredi, men aged between 18 and 24 are avoiding military service. The figure carries more weight with every report of personnel shortages in the Israeli army.

In the eyes of their political backers in the Knesset, the Haredi parties Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ), this community preserves the essential character of Israel through Torah study and prayer. In the eyes of critics, however, they are avoiding the draft and refusing to carry their share in the wars Israel has entered since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023.

Among the critics is the self-described Zionist opposition bloc, which is in a tight race with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party and the far-right coalition it leads.

A 2024 Supreme Court ruling required the military to begin drafting ultra-Orthodox men. When anger over the jailing of draft evaders spilled into street protests last May, the issue became so toxic that it threatened Netanyahu's government itself.

Netanyahu's ruling coalition depends on the support of the Haredi parties, in return for softening measures meant to compel their supporters to serve. But after Netanyahu told the parties he did not have the votes to pass an exemption bill, they pushed to dissolve the Knesset and effectively weakened the government.

On Tuesday, Netanyahu said he opposed the arrest of 40 Haredim who had been detained for evading the draft after returning to Israel from the United States, despite a law passed this year that was meant to halt such arrests temporarily. 'We must preserve the world of Torah because it preserved us,' he told the Haredi radio station Kol Barama. 'These arrests are a deliberate attempt to harm the process of drafting Haredim without coercion.'

How far those remarks will land with the rest of the population is unclear. The issue is seen as an opportunity for those seeking to remove him, while also opening divisions within his own base. A September poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that an overwhelming 72 percent wanted the Haredim drafted alongside other Israelis eligible for military service.

In early October, a group of Haredim clashed with Israeli forces who had come to arrest a draft evader in Modi'in, drawing condemnation from Netanyahu's opponents. Former chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, whose Yashar party currently holds a narrow lead over Likud, described the incident as reflecting the same dangerous worldview that seeks to make draft evasion the norm and to portray those who fulfil their duty to the state as suckers. 'That is what the upcoming election is about,' he said: 'Netanyahu's draft-dodging government, or a government of conscription led by me.'

Criticism of the Haredim's refusal to serve has also come from within Netanyahu's own party, with Likud lawmakers arguing that ultra-Orthodox non-conscription could threaten the future of the State of Israel. Daniel Bar-Tal, a professor of psychology at Tel Aviv University, called it a paradox — on one side, the issue of equal service unites the secular and Zionist religious public; on the other, the ultra-Orthodox are right-wing; the two do not go together, which is why Netanyahu faces a dilemma.

Despite the public anger, there is no sign of Haredi intransigence easing. The two Haredi parties, Shas and UTJ, have ruled out joining any coalition that does not pass laws exempting members of their community from military service, even if that makes it impossible to form any coalition sympathetic to the ultra-Orthodox. In the words of Israeli pollster Mitchell Barak: 'This is a big deal. The opposition parties are trying to pitch the election as the draft dodgers versus those who protect and serve — and that is the decisive point of the election.'

Next week's vote is the first election since Israel's war against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip began in October 2023, a war that has killed nearly 74,400 people and left most of the besieged territory in ruins, followed by further regional conflicts. The economic burden of the campaigns, higher taxes and the cost of living have fuelled public discontent. An August survey found that 42 percent of Israelis said their finances had worsened since the war on Gaza began, with the families of reservists hit hardest. The Haredi population also keeps growing — 1.26 million people, or 12.5 percent of Israelis, identify as Haredi, and projections suggest that by 2065 between a fifth and a third of the population will be Haredi. As Shmuel Rosner, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute, puts it, the great burden of service has become much more pronounced while the Haredi sector keeps growing, meaning a large cohort of potential soldiers does not ease the burden on others. On October 27, this single issue may well decide how many voters cast their ballots.