Israel's national security minister Ben-Gvir could hold the key to Netanyahu's next coalition

Polling ahead of Israel's election on Tuesday (October 27) projects that National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party will win between seven and ten seats in the 120-member Knesset.

That result could make any future government led by Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party dependent on Ben-Gvir's support and position him to secure senior ministerial portfolios, according to the polling.

As national security minister, Ben-Gvir oversees the ministry responsible for internal security, including the Israel Police, the Israel Prison Service and civilian firearms licensing.

Yishai Fleisher, international spokesman for the Jewish community of Hebron and ranked No. 12 on the Otzma Yehudit list, said: 'I always say that Minister Ben-Gvir, if he were in America, he would just be called a Texan.' By that he meant law and order, the death penalty for murderers, tough prison conditions for jihadists and gun rights for the average Jewish person to defend themselves.

Fleisher also said mass immigration had fuelled Islamist extremism and unrest in parts of Europe and that Israelis do not want to see Tel Aviv in a similar situation, arguing that this is why voters are embracing 'law-and-order' and 'tough-on-crime' candidates.

Former Israeli ambassador to Washington and former deputy foreign minister Danny Ayalon, by contrast, said Ben-Gvir's way of speaking had turned the entire world against Israel, portraying it as a racist country and making it a pariah state.

Ayalon said Israel had become less secure internally during Ben-Gvir's tenure because crime is rising, and that many young voters had backed him at the last election hoping he would bring governability and authority to areas such as the Negev and the Galilee.

According to Fleisher, Ben-Gvir was an activist from a very young age, opposed the Oslo process with the Palestinians, and was arrested many times and faced court repeatedly; then-Chief Justice Aharon Barak once told him to go and study to be a lawyer.

Ben-Gvir, who studied law, was first elected to the Knesset in 2021, and after the 2022 elections Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appointed him minister of national security.

In 2007 Ben-Gvir was convicted of supporting a terrorist organisation and inciting racism; his campaign says the conviction stemmed from displaying a sticker of the late Rabbi Meir Kahane, whose Kach party was outlawed in 1994, and Ben-Gvir has said many times publicly that he has matured since then and moved on from those positions.

On October 15 Ben-Gvir shared a Hebrew-language media report quoting Netanyahu as saying he would not serve again as national security minister; Ben-Gvir responded: 'Dear Prime Minister, only the people will decide. Ben Gvir is strong, Israel is strong!'

Last Wednesday Netanyahu's Likud party reversed course, posting on its official WhatsApp channel: 'Ben-Gvir is a senior minister in our government, and he will remain so in the next government — provided that the bloc consisting of the Left and Arab parties does not win.'

Ayalon, however, said Netanyahu could opt not to include Ben-Gvir in the next government even if it meant forming an alliance with opposition parties such as Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar, adding: 'Netanyahu is brilliant. He kept Ben-Gvir because it suited him. If he could, he would get rid of him in a minute.'