Texas Senate race deadlocked: Trump returns to campaign a week before election day as Paxton and Talarico tie at 49 percent

The Texas Senate race is deadlocked, with Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico each at 49 percent among likely voters in a new Fox News poll. With the contest too close for comfort, President Donald Trump is heading back to Texas in the final stretch of the midterm campaign to rally Republican voters.

Trump will campaign in Corpus Christi on Tuesday morning before heading to Lubbock, deep in West Texas, alongside Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton. The two-stop visit comes exactly one week before Election Day, with early voting already underway.

Texas is a longtime Republican stronghold that Trump carried by nearly 14 percentage points just two years ago. Republicans are now confronting an unusually competitive Senate contest in that same state.

The Fox News poll released on Wednesday found Paxton and Talarico tied at 49 percent. Last month, Talarico held a two-point edge over Paxton, 51 percent to 49 percent.

Paxton, the state attorney general and a MAGA firebrand, is running for the seat of retiring Senator John Cornyn after beating Cornyn earlier this year in a contentious Republican primary that went into overtime. Talarico, a former public school teacher and state lawmaker, is looking to end the Democrats' more than 30-year statewide losing streak in Texas.

The Texas face-off is one of roughly a dozen Senate contests that will determine whether the Republicans hold on to their slim Senate majority. Both sides will be in Lubbock on the same day on Tuesday: Talarico is scheduled to campaign at Texas Tech in the evening, as Trump rallies with Paxton at the Lubbock Memorial Civic Center.

The two candidates are making sharply different closing pitches. Paxton has sought to tie Talarico to the national Democratic Party and portray him as too liberal for Texas, pointing to past controversial comments. Talarico has capitalized on voter dissatisfaction with Trump's handling of the economy.

The poll found Democrats hold an enthusiasm advantage, with 69 percent saying they are extremely interested in the election compared with 61 percent of Republicans. Paxton also faces resistance within his own party, with 90 percent of Republicans backing him compared with 98 percent of Democrats supporting Talarico.

Paxton has faced a slew of scandals and legal problems over the past decade, including a 2023 vote by the Texas House of Representatives to impeach him; he was eventually acquitted of all charges by the state Senate. He is also dealing with a contentious divorce, with his wife citing 'biblical grounds' based on 'recent discoveries' as she filed last year to end their marriage.

Beyond the Senate contest, Texas is central to the battle for control of the House after Republicans redrew the state's congressional map last year to create additional GOP opportunities. Hispanic likely voters favor Talarico 64 percent to 34 percent in the Fox News poll, a shift from 2024, when Hispanic voters in Texas favored Trump by one point, according to the Fox News Voter Analysis.

Pocketbook concerns are also weighing on voters. More than twice as many say they are financially worse off than two years ago as say they are better off, 43 percent to 20 percent. Those who say they are worse off break heavily for Talarico, while voters who say they are better off or about the same favor Paxton. Tuesday's stops mark Trump's fourth visit to Texas since Labor Day: he spent two days in Dallas in early September for the GOP's first-ever midterm convention, was in Denton on October 1 for an event at the Peterbilt truck plant, and returned six days later for a campaign rally in San Antonio with Paxton.