Netanyahu bloc and Eisenkot-led opposition neck and neck in Israel's Knesset election, neither close to 61 seats

Israel's parliamentary (Knesset) election is shaping up as a neck-and-neck contest between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc and the main opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot.

According to the latest figures from Israel's main public broadcaster Kan 11 and television Channel 13 on the election held on Tuesday (October 27), both Netanyahu's bloc and the opposition bloc could win 51 seats each.

Channel 12, revising its survey, said the Eisenkot-led opposition bloc could win 50 seats and Netanyahu's bloc 52 seats. Earlier initial surveys had put the anti-Netanyahu bloc slightly ahead; the latest surveys show that gap narrowing.

As a result, neither side can be sure of the majority needed to form a government. In Israel's 120-seat parliament, at least 61 seats are required to form a government.

According to the surveys, the Arab parties — the Joint List and the United Arab List (Ra'am) — could together win 18 seats. Analysts say those parties could now play the role of 'kingmaker' in the race for a majority.

According to the Central Elections Committee, voter turnout in this election was 77.7 percent, the highest in nearly 30 years, since 1999. Turnout rose by 7.1 percentage points compared with the last election in 2022.

This is Israel's first parliamentary election since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, which is why security and future political leadership dominated the campaign.

According to Channel 13's forecast, Netanyahu's Likud party could emerge as the largest single party in parliament with 27 seats. Gadi Eisenkot's party Yashar could win 23 seats and former prime minister Naftali Bennett's Together bloc 13 seats.

With neither side able to secure 61 seats on its own, intense bargaining over government formation is likely. Netanyahu, as leader of the largest single party, and Eisenkot, as leader of the larger bloc, could each stake a claim to form a government before President Isaac Herzog.

Analysts fear that if neither side can gather the necessary support, the political instability of 2019 to 2022 could return, when the country held five general elections within a few years. Until a new government is formed, Benjamin Netanyahu will continue as caretaker prime minister.

Israel's Central Elections Committee has already begun the official vote count, and the formal, final results could be announced on November 4. Political analysts say the final results may differ somewhat from the exit surveys, so the official outcome will have to be awaited.