Early Voting in US Midterms Tops 43 Million and Could Break the Turnout Record

Only a few days remain before the US midterm elections, which will decide which party controls Congress for the next two years. Already, more than 43 million Americans have cast an early vote.

According to data from the University of Florida's election laboratory, between four and five million early votes are being cast every day, far more than in most previous elections.

Professor Mike McDonald, who runs the database, said turnout in Texas has so far been far higher than the state usually records. Turnout in Hispanic communities has also been much higher than normal.

Overall turnout appears to be on course to exceed 2020, and possibly even 2018, the year that broke the 1914 record for overall turnout in a midterm election.

McDonald said Texas has already passed its 2022 early-vote total, when about 1.75 million early votes were cast. More than 5.8 million votes have now been cast in the state.

Texas has emerged as an important battleground that could determine which party controls the Senate for the remainder of Donald Trump's presidency, the data noted.

In states where voters register a political affiliation, the number of votes cast by Democrats has risen, while Republican early voting is roughly the same as in 2022.

McDonald said early voting has also risen among voters who chose not to register with any party, although the data does not show which candidates they picked.

According to Thursday's figures, 44 percent of early votes were cast by Democrats and 31.2 percent by Republicans. A further 24.7 percent were cast by voters with no party affiliation. That breakdown, however, applies only to roughly half of states, where registering a party affiliation is required.

Three states require voters to state their race when registering: North Carolina, Georgia and Florida. Data from those states show voting by Hispanic and Black communities has risen, while white turnout is level with the 2022 early-vote figures.

McDonald said, 'It makes sense, because non-white communities are often part of the Democratic coalition and white voters are often part of the Republican coalition.'

Texas does not require voters to state party affiliation or race. But the data show turnout has surged in some counties along the Mexican border where more than 90 percent of residents are Hispanic. McDonald said, 'When I look at those counties, I see that several of them will exceed their entire 2022 turnout on early votes alone.'

Early voting rates have risen sharply in recent years, driven mainly by the Covid pandemic, when more states introduced in-person and postal early voting.