AI Data Centre Power Demand Could Rise 160 Percent by 2030, BFF Warns on Climate

The rapid spread of artificial intelligence (AI) technology is driving up the electricity demand of data centres around the world, putting pressure on power supply systems. In Europe, data centre electricity demand could rise by up to 160 percent by 2030, according to a forecast. Electricity use in the sector could then reach 287 terawatt-hours, more than Spain's total electricity consumption in 2022.

In this situation, the Germany-based environmental organisation Beyond Fossil Fuels (BFF) has questioned the role of AI in tackling the climate crisis. According to the organisation, the environmental impact of AI must be considered before it is presented as a solution to the climate crisis. It also said the rapid expansion of data centres is becoming a major threat to climate action and electrification.

According to BFF, there is not enough evidence behind 73 percent of the claims made by various organisations about the climate benefits of AI. The figure comes from a study published earlier this year at the initiative of several environmental organisations.

The study analysed 172 statements from organisations and agencies such as Google, Microsoft and the International Energy Agency. Those statements had claimed that AI would play an overall positive role in tackling the climate crisis. But the study found that only 27 percent of the claims were backed by published academic research, while 37 percent cited no evidence at all.

BFF also said the study found no example of consumer-level generative AI systems such as ChatGPT, Gemini and Copilot reducing carbon emissions by a significant and verifiable amount. In the organisation's view, the additional electricity demand and environmental harm of the technology are not being properly considered when its potential benefits are highlighted.

The organisation fears that if the electricity demand of new data centres is met mainly with fossil gas, the impact on the climate will be severe. Annual carbon emissions from newly added data centres in the European Union could reach 39 million tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2030. By BFF's calculation, that is more than the combined annual emissions of Lithuania and Estonia in 2022.

BFF says the additional electricity demand of data centres needs to be met through renewable energy. But if new data centres use renewable electricity planned for other sectors, efforts to cut carbon emissions in the transport, industry and building sectors could be hampered.

The rapid expansion of data centres is also affecting electricity prices and people's cost of living. BFF cited Ireland as an example. According to one of the organisation's reports, the rapid expansion of data centres between 2015 and 2023 cost Ireland's economy 715 million euros. Data centres currently use more than 22 percent of Ireland's total electricity. The organisation claims that during the 2021 to 2023 energy crisis, poor households in the country bore an extra 209 euros in electricity costs.

BFF's analysis says that if future data centre demand is kept limited and renewable energy use is increased quickly, Irish households could save an estimated 435 euros between 2025 and 2034. The report notes that this saving could be possible even if another global energy crisis occurs during that period.

BFF welcomed the COP31 summit target of electrifying 35 percent of total final energy demand by 2035. But in the organisation's view, electrification will only help protect the climate when it is powered by renewable energy and reduces fossil fuel use. It says electrification of the transport, building and industry sectors should be given higher priority than data centres, because the extra demand from data centres is pressuring the electricity grid and risks delaying electrification in those important sectors.