Two days to US midterms: Democrats ahead in polls as Trump and El-Sayed make final push

There are two days left until the United States midterm elections, and Democratic and Republican leaders are making last-ditch efforts to woo voters. The cost-of-living crisis has become one of the key talking points of the campaign, exacerbated, the report said, by the US-Israel war on Iran. According to the latest survey, Democrats are still ahead of the Republicans, but several closely fought Senate races may decide which party ends up in control of the US Congress.

Democrats continue to lead Republicans by 51.5 percent to 43.1 percent, according to the latest RealClearPolling average. A national THP/MM survey conducted on October 28 and 29 put Democrats ahead by 54 percent to 41 percent, while an Emerson College poll conducted from October 24 to 26 showed a 10-point Democratic lead.

Natalie Jackson, a political analyst and pollster, told Al Jazeera that the results reflected public dissatisfaction with Trump and the economy. “Polling shows an environment that is pretty favourable to the Democrats. The president is very unpopular, Americans feel the pinch of high costs, which are partly due to tariffs and the war in Iran, and the general sentiment is that Republicans did not deliver in the last two years,” she said.

On Sunday, President Donald Trump will be campaigning in Iowa and Kansas. Trump had initially cancelled both appearances before reversing his decision on Friday. In Iowa, in one of the contested Senate races, Trump will campaign with Republican Representative Ashley, who faces Democrat Josh Turek. In Kansas, Senator Roger Marshall is looking for re-election against Democrat Adam Hamilton in a tight contest.

The Kansas race is particularly close. A Washington Post-Schar School poll released on Friday suggested Democrat Adam Hamilton was leading Republican Senator Roger Marshall by 52 percent to 43 percent. But another Emerson College survey indicated a tighter race, with Hamilton ahead of Marshall by 50 percent to 47 percent. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, but rising farming costs and opposition to Trump’s immigration crackdown have made this race unexpectedly competitive.

Doug Heye, a Republican strategist and former communications director for the Republican National Committee, questioned the nine-point lead of the Washington Post-Schar School survey. He referred to a Des Moines Register poll published days before the 2024 presidential election that showed Kamala Harris leading Trump by three percentage points in Iowa; Trump went on to win the state by about 13 points. “A lot of Republicans just don’t want to answer calls from pollsters,” Heye added.

Jackson also said polling might not accurately reflect the result of individual Senate contests. “In some individual races – particularly the close Senate races – we could see polling error that shifts the race in one direction or another,” she said. “Pollsters have reported some potential issues with getting Republicans to answer polls. That might indicate that polls are underestimating Republicans, but we don’t know until the votes are counted.”

Meanwhile, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed is scheduled to campaign in Detroit and Southfield, Michigan, as he seeks to defeat Republican Mike Rogers in the Senate race. Celinda Lake, a Democratic strategist and pollster working with El-Sayed’s campaign, said the candidate had made affordability key to his message. “He’s very clear. He says, ‘Money out of politics, money in your pockets, and healthcare for all,’” she said. Lake said the Michigan race would depend heavily on voter turnout.

As the election nears, both parties are focusing their final campaign messages on the economy and the cost of living. While Democrats have been focusing on affordability issues, Trump has been conducting telephone rallies for Republican candidates in closely contested races. Asked whether Republicans had found a convincing closing message, Heye said: “No, they haven’t. That’s a big part of their challenge.” He said candidates should focus on issues voters were raising, particularly the cost of energy, healthcare, groceries and other everyday expenses.

Lake said Democrats were also facing questions about what they would deliver if they controlled Congress. “The feelings about the Democrats are negative, too, which is very different from, say, 2018, when Democrats were positively perceived,” she said. She said while many voters were seeking change, they were still unsure what either of the parties would do.

More than 51 million Americans have already voted, according to reports. But early-voting numbers do not show which party will win, because they do not establish how those voters voted. Lake said turnout would be one of the most important factors in the elections, and she also identified young voters and the gender gap as important indicators to follow.

A total of 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats are up for grabs. Democrats need a net gain of three House seats and four Senate seats to win the majority in both chambers. While polling suggests Democrats are ahead, control of the Senate will depend on individual contests, including races in Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Iowa, North Carolina and Alaska. “We can be fairly confident that Democrats will win the House majority, but the Senate picture is unclear,” Jackson told Al Jazeera. Heye said the Senate is so campaign-, state- and candidate-specific that it is a much harder read.

Candidates have Sunday and Monday to make their final appeals to voters before they head to the polls on Tuesday. Polling stations will begin closing on Tuesday evening, with the first results expected shortly afterwards. However, some of the closely fought races might take longer. Heye said he would be watching the first results in Indiana and Kentucky for indications of how the election might unfold. Jackson cautioned that the results in individual Senate races could differ from what the final polls suggest.