Governors' races in 36 US states take centre stage in the midterms, with 19 open seats and eyes on 2028

Much of the attention ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections has fallen on the battle for control of the United States Congress, but key state-level races are also unfolding, with far-reaching consequences for the country's future.

This year, 36 US states will vote for their next governor, the most powerful elected official in state government.

An unusually high proportion of those races centre on open seats, with no incumbent governor on the ballot seeking re-election. In 19 of the races, the current officeholder is either term-limited, like California Democrat Gavin Newsom, or has voluntarily opted not to run again, like Iowa Republican Kim Reynolds. This historic turnover creates the potential for several states to take on significant changes in leadership.

Governors serve as the chief executives of their states, overseeing government departments and agencies responsible for delivering public services.

Their powers vary by state. In general, governors propose budgets, appoint senior state officials, direct state agencies about how to enforce existing law, and issue executive orders. They can also sign into law bills passed by their state's legislature — or veto them.

One of their most visible areas of influence is reproductive rights. Since the US Supreme Court ruled in 2022 that there is no constitutional right to abortion access, state governments have played a central role in determining whether the procedure is legal. Each state can now regulate abortion within its boundaries, and some 13 state legislatures have passed complete or near-total abortion bans.

But the Guttmacher Institute, a US-based reproductive rights organisation, noted that about a dozen governors have issued executive orders to mitigate the harm done by such bans. By issuing executive orders, governors could quickly declare immediate protections for providers and patients, the organisation said, which was particularly helpful in states such as North Carolina, where the governor is supportive of abortion rights but the legislature is not.

Governors can also influence how US elections are administered. In some states, governors appoint the officials responsible for overseeing elections, while in others those officials are elected independently. Governors may also sign or veto legislation changing voting rules, giving them significant influence over election administration.

Governors also help shape how states respond to the federal government. They may challenge federal policies in court or negotiate with Washington over funding and programme requirements, and state governments play a major role in implementing federally funded programmes.

One example came after former President Barack Obama's healthcare policy, the Affordable Care Act, passed Congress in 2010. Many governors were in a position to decide whether their states adopted the Act's expansion of Medicaid, an insurance programme for low-income households. Steve Beshear of Kentucky and Earl Ray Tomblin of West Virginia issued executive orders in 2013 to adopt Medicaid expansion without their legislatures' approval, while Florida's then-Governor Rick Scott opposed expansion and directed his state legislature not to adopt it.

As their state's chief executives, governors have a unique platform to showcase their political talents, and many use the governor's mansion to catapult to the presidency. At least 17 former US presidents — including Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W Bush — were governors before they occupied the White House. But the Eagleton Institute of Politics estimates that only 53 percent of presidential nominees who were previously governors were ultimately victorious. In the 2016 cycle, New Jersey's then-governor Chris Christie hoped to secure the Republican nomination but dropped out in February that year amid criticism of several actions during his governorship, including the scandal known as Bridgegate.

This year's midterm races are expected to set the stage for the presidential election in 2028. Several outgoing governors are among the likely hopefuls. Newsom, who has served as California's governor since 2019, is prevented from running for a third term this year; a vocal critic of Republican President Donald Trump, he is widely speculated to be a frontrunner for the Democratic nomination in 2028. Several other potential Democratic contenders, including Wes Moore of Maryland and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, are locked in re-election campaigns this cycle that could serve as previews for future presidential bids.