Middle East conflict squeezes global aviation, with effects on Bangladesh's expatriate travel and cargo

War and geopolitical tension have spread instability across Middle East air routes into the world's civil aviation sector. Operating costs for airlines are rising because of flying alternative routes to avoid conflict zones, flight cancellations and schedule changes.

Higher fuel prices, security risks and uncertainty in passenger transport have added to the pressure on airlines' profits. Because of its Middle East-dependent international links, the situation is also affecting Bangladesh's air transport, expatriate passenger movement and cargo business.

In its 2026 financial forecast published on 7 June, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said the combined net profit of airlines worldwide could fall to $23 billion because of war-related disruption in the Middle East and higher jet fuel prices. In 2025, that profit was $45 billion.

The association's earlier forecast had put 2026 profit at $41 billion. Under the new estimate, the profit margin could fall to 2 percent, from 4.2 percent in 2025, the forecast said.

IATA identified rising fuel costs as one of the main causes of the crisis. According to its figures, airlines worldwide spent $252 billion on fuel in 2025; in 2026 that could rise to $350 billion, about 40 percent more.

Over the same period, the average price of jet fuel is forecast to rise from $90 to $152 a barrel. As a result, fuel could account for 31.4 percent of airlines' total operating costs, compared with 25.4 percent the previous year.

Middle East airlines could come under the greatest pressure, IATA forecast. By its calculation, the region's airlines could post a combined net loss of $4.3 billion in 2026; the previous year they had made a profit of $7.2 billion. Flight cancellations, airspace restrictions and a drop in transit passengers were cited as the main reasons. Passenger demand in the Middle East could also fall by 11.4 percent in 2026, the forecast said.

Air-route safety has also raised new concern. With the risk of missiles, drones and military activity in the Middle East and nearby conflict areas, airlines are having to reorganise routes and schedules. Navigation problems such as GPS jamming and spoofing have also created a need for extra caution in aircraft movements.

Flying alternative routes lengthens journey times, uses more fuel and adds cost to aircraft and crew management. To cope, some carriers are raising ticket prices, while others are deciding to cut flights on less profitable routes, the report noted.

For Bangladesh, the impact of this crisis is especially important. Large numbers of Bangladeshis work in Middle East countries including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait. The region's airports are important for their travel, for Umrah passenger transport and for international transit. Flight cancellations or schedule changes therefore increase the suffering of expatriate workers, Umrah pilgrims and their families, and disrupt airlines' income and operating plans.

In this situation, people connected with the aviation sector are emphasising the use of alternative airports, schedule coordination and government-level talks with the Saudi authorities. KM Mojibul Hoque believes that if flight opportunities at airports such as Taif and Madinah are increased, passengers could travel onward by road to their destinations when needed. He noted, however, that security, visas, ground travel and extra costs would also have to be considered in such an initiative.

How long the Middle East conflict lasts will largely determine the scale of the damage to Bangladesh's air transport sector. Alongside reducing passengers' suffering, sector figures say coordinated preparation by government agencies and air transport companies is needed on alternative routes and emergency flight management.