After the Democrats' midterm win, Europe's hard right is putting distance between itself and Trump

After the Democrats won the United States midterm elections, hard-right politicians in Europe have begun keeping their distance from President Donald Trump. In most cases, however, they have refrained from criticising Trump directly.

The shift is notable because after Trump's victory many of them had loudly advertised their ideological ties with him. Some of them had even travelled to Washington, DC.

Jordan Bardella, leader of France's National Rally, has been cited as a textbook example of the political shift. Most opinion polls suggest his party could form the next government.

Bardella said the isolationist streak in Trump's second term was somewhat weaker than during his first term from 2017 to 2021. He remarked that America's intervention over Iran gravely affects the world economy. He did not, however, directly mention whether Trump had a role behind that intervention.

In Germany, Alice Weidel, co-leader of the hard-right Alternative for Germany, also pointed to the Iran war as a cause of the defeat. She told the T-Online news outlet that Trump had promised his voters he would not pursue an interventionist foreign policy, and that Republicans were now paying the price for breaking that promise.

Trump has acknowledged that the war with Iran played a role in his party's defeat. He has, however, said he stands by his decision.

In Italy, Matteo Salvini, leader of the far-right League party, which is part of the ruling coalition, said war, international tension and the rising cost of living had influenced the American election result the most, with a direct negative impact on families. He added that it was to be hoped this vote would speed up the end of the conflict and pave the way for a return to peace.

Roberto Vannacci, a former Italian general, leads the far-right Futuro Nazionale party. He said the United States result had brought to the fore the political risk of failing to deliver on election promises. Vannacci had in the past praised Trump's 'America First' nationalist politics, but later criticised Trump's foreign policy.

Vannacci said Trump had failed to meet expectations: he could not end the war between Russia and Ukraine and instead started a war against Iran. As a result, fuel prices rose and instability was created in the economy and the stock market, which hurt the American middle class and influenced the election result, he said.

According to Mujtaba Rahman, managing director and analyst at the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, Europe's hard-right leaders are keeping their distance from Trump purely for clear political advantage. He told Reuters that Trump's growing unpopularity, especially against the backdrop of the rising cost of living, had created a situation in which this once political asset now risks becoming an electoral liability.

Rahman said the hard-right leaders seem to want both benefits at once: on the one hand they want to gain from the ideological momentum of Trumpism, and on the other they want to free themselves of responsibility for the chaos and economic instability of Trump's tenure. He said the risk is that Trump and his MAGA allies, who see Europe's hard right as ideological partners in the fight against European structures, could in reaction withdraw their political support or even turn against them.