Sabotage shadow over garment sector: economists warn economy would collapse if factories shut for 90 days

The readymade garment industry, the lifeblood of the country’s economy, has now become the centre of a political battle. Prime Minister Tareq Rahman has made a direct allegation, and an investigation by the Detective Branch (DB) of the Dhaka Metropolitan Police has uncovered a planned sabotage network in the industrial zones.

Entrepreneurs build factories, but it is political unity, policy continuity and a shared national goal that turn a country into an industrialised nation. In mature economies, political disputes end before they reach the factory gate.

But Bangladesh faces a deeply worrying reality. The garment sector, one of the main economic pillars on which the country’s survival rests, is being turned into a high-risk political battlefield.

Prime Minister Tareq Rahman has alleged directly that hostile forces active from across the border are inciting garment workers, creating disorder in the industrial areas with the aim of destabilising the state in a planned way and destroying the economy.

This is not merely a political statement. The Detective Branch has found a network of planned sabotage. The investigation has revealed allegations that influential people, including a former Awami League leader and two former additional inspectors general of police, financed and incited violence and disorder behind the cover of the workers’ movement.

A programme that began as a movement to secure workers’ legitimate rights was hijacked and turned into a field of strategic violence and sabotage. The matter came fully to light while investigating the attack on a police officer in Mirpur on 3 November.

As smoke of unrest rises over the industrial zones, a rare consensus has formed among sociologists, economists and lawmakers over the terrible consequences of this political game.

Nazrul Islam Azad, the member of parliament for Narayanganj-2, where most of the country’s industrial establishments, especially textile and garment factories, are located, has issued a stern warning to those pulling the strings from behind the shadows. He said no one would be allowed to hijack the workers’ demand for a minimum monthly wage of 30,000 taka for outside political interests.

Taking a stand amid tension in the Shibu Market and Katharpul areas, Nazrul Islam Azad raised the issue of traffic coming to a halt on the Dhaka-Narayanganj Link Road because of protests. He reminded the country that while the government and factory owners fully support the right to a fair wage, an invisible force is trying to push that movement towards a national disaster.

The consequences of failing to protect this industrial sector from party-political conflict are specific and severe. About 84 percent of Bangladesh’s total export earnings come from the garment sector. The sector also contributes more than 10 percent of the country’s GDP. If production in this industry stops for even 90 days because of political sabotage, the economy would face total collapse.

Economists have warned that if operations stop for three months, the main source of foreign currency earnings would shut down immediately. The central bank’s reserves would fall, the country would lose its capacity to import fuel and food, and the taka would lose value rapidly under high inflationary pressure.

Beyond the arithmetic lies the fear of a huge humanitarian disaster. If factories close for 90 days, the livelihoods of more than four million workers, most of them women, would be directly at risk. More than 20 million dependent family members would face acute food shortages and poverty. Widespread unrest could spread across Mirpur, Gazipur, Ashulia and Narayanganj.

The world’s fashion market will not wait for Bangladesh to settle its political disputes. Failure to deliver even one season’s orders could lead international brands to permanently shift contracts worth several billion dollars to Vietnam, India and Cambodia. The damage would take a decade to repair.

At the same time, the banking sector, structurally tied to these factories through a vast loan network, would also be badly hurt. Large corporate loan defaults would rise, liquidity would get stuck, and the entire private economy would grind to a halt.

Three months of halted production is not a temporary pause; it would permanently destroy decades of gains in poverty alleviation and industrial development. As the government’s newly formed wage commission begins work to solve the workers’ real problems, demands are rising from all political sides for the conflict to stop immediately.

With the world already facing many crises from the threat of climate change and wars abroad, keeping the garment industry out of politics is no longer an option. It is now the last line of defence for protecting national sovereignty.