Burnham wants to move closer to the EU, but the road will not be smooth

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham wants to move closer to the European Union — but that road does not look smooth.

The second annual EU-UK summit since Britain left the EU is due to take place in Brussels on 20 November. Burnham’s big moment with the bloc’s top brass is fast approaching.

The meeting is not formally about whether Britain might one day go back in. But the prime minister has suggested that rejoining the EU one day is his long-term ambition.

Burnham has largely inherited a deal that is already prepared. A new and improved agreement between Britain and the EU was first meant to be struck in May, then in July, but political upheaval kept pushing it back. Still, the outline of the new agreement has been clear for many months, following the path of “closer alignment” that Sir Keir Starmer proclaimed at the start of the year.

A source familiar with the negotiations said the talks are “90% there”. Agreements to make life easier for food producers, a deal on emissions trading that could help manufacturers, and new arrangements for youth visas are almost settled.

Haggling continues over a cap on the youth visa numbers. An EU source close to the process said: “The bone of contention is a cap – we proposed 150,000, the UK proposed 50,000 – but we would expect to reach a compromise”, even though it has been “very tense” on both sides.

A last-minute call from the EU to cut tuition fees for its students is expected to be parked for now, with more months of discussion to come.

There are dilemmas too over the EU’s so-called “Made in Europe” plans – draft laws to protect its industries from Chinese competition. Figures quoted by the prime minister suggest closer ties to the EU without going back in could add 0.4 percent to GDP.

But as the row over smoky bacon crisps and food labelling shows, making it easier to do business with the bloc does not come without a cost. Like the bendy banana or the so-called sausage war between Boris Johnson and Emmanuel Macron, it has become a classic of the genre.

Talking to the BBC’s Business editor Simon Jack this week, the prime minister admitted Britain would have to follow more EU rules. “That’s where we’ve ended up,” Burnham acknowledged.

The EU’s former Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has warned that Britain cannot have it all and cannot rejoin the single market “à la carte”. If Britain wanted to go back in, he said, it could forget the famous rebate, and there is no way to be in the huge trading bloc without accepting freedom of movement.

One government figure said dealing with the EU still involves “lots of very warm words, but quite a lot of arms folded”. An EU insider said the mood has certainly changed: “There is big scope getting closer to the EU, but nobody wants it to be toxic… we wonder, does he know what he is doing?”

Business opinion is mixed too. One prominent business figure explained: “You’re a langoustine exporter from Ullapool? Yes, please. You are manufacturing and making that car? Yes, get me back in. You’re a drugs manufacturer? Well, sort of, yes and no. You’re in financial services? We’ve spent the money. Do we want to unpick this?”

There are prominent backers of the idea of a return to the EU. Former Chancellor Rachel Reeves and London Mayor Sadiq Khan make the case, as do the Lib Dems, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru, along with many Labour MPs and ministers. Polling suggests a majority of voters support going back into the EU.

But the political risks of arguing for a return are enormous. One former Labour minister said, “the prime minister wants us to go back in, but it is a very hazardous route”. When another cabinet minister was asked whether they fancied another referendum, their eyes rolled so violently they nearly went into the back of their head. The Conservatives and Reform are already protesting loudly about the deal expected to be signed this month. Kemi Badenoch criticised the prime minister for “unpicking the deal this country signed with the EU a decade after the referendum”, adding, “he is not going to get a better deal… it’s not just that the EU are tough negotiators, he has already revealed his entire negotiating hand.” Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice accused Burnham of “trying to sneak us back into Brussels via the back door”, and said Reform would “never let this betrayal go unchallenged”.

Asked recently if he would like to see Britain come back, the Czech prime minister answered, “Yes, of course – we need more money.” There could be enormous opportunity for the economy, important support for Britain’s security, and a boost for the prime minister’s backing among some voters if he does decide to make the case for rejoining the EU — but the road will not be smooth.