Two Days Before the Vote, the Forecast Shifts: Kansas Moves to Toss-Up, Ohio Leans Democrat

Just two days before the US midterm elections, Fox News has updated its Power Rankings forecast. Kansas's Senate race has moved from Lean Republican to Toss-up, and Nebraska has moved from Likely Republican down to Lean Republican.

Kansas is a conservative stronghold, but according to the Fox News analysis, Republicans are spending so much time and money in the state relative to other states that it cannot be concluded that Senator Roger Marshall has an edge over Democrat Adam Hamilton.

In Nebraska, the odds remain in Republican Senator Pete Ricketts' favour. However, a larger-than-expected swing against the GOP could open the door for independent Dan Osborn to pull off an upset, the forecast says.

The changes do not stop there. The Ohio Senate race has also shifted to Lean Democrat, with Sherrod Brown leading Jon Husted, and South Carolina has moved to Toss-up. Seven states are most likely to decide the Senate majority: on a good night for the Democrats, their ceiling rises to 55 seats, while a good night for Republicans could see them retain control with up to 52 seats.

The analysis describes what looks like two electorates in these midterms. The first is frustrated with President Donald Trump and ready to reject Republicans; it includes growing numbers of independent, rural and Hispanic voters who say they will vote for a Democrat. That is what the latest round of House polling shows, including a survey last week that had Democrats up 11 points on the generic ballot.

The second electorate is wavering on Republicans but will not necessarily hand Democrats the Senate. These voters, in the Midwest and a few other places, say they prefer the Democrat or Republican in their states by a point or two at most. That is why a big Democratic lead in the House does not necessarily translate to the Senate — the House and Senate maps are far apart this year.

According to Fox News, the president's declining approval rating and Democratic advantages on the issues will likely deliver them the House, and possibly by many seats. But the Senate remains a toss-up, because the road to a majority goes through several states that Trump won by 11 points or more.

The war with Iran looms large over this climate. The administration's decision to start joint US-Israeli military strikes against Iran in February has cast a shadow over the GOP. Trump's approval rating was 44 percent in the last pre-war survey and sits at 36 percent now — and that rating will decide the fate of many congressional Republicans, the analysis says.