Two Days to the US Midterms: Control of Congress on a Knife-Edge, and Everything Else at Stake

In two days, on November 3, Americans voting in the midterm elections will decide control of the US House and Senate for the next two years. Republicans are defending their slim congressional majorities, but President Donald Trump predicts the GOP will hold both the House and the Senate.

On the campaign trail last week, Trump pledged that if voters elect a Republican House and a Republican Senate on November 3rd, Republicans will continue to put America first every single day — and claimed that if Democrats take control, the country will go to hell.

Republicans are fighting political history, as the party in power in Washington has traditionally lost seats during midterm election years. The GOP also faces a challenging political climate fuelled by persistent inflation tied in part to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran, and Trump's increasingly negative approval ratings.

Also up for grabs in this year's midterms are governorships in 36 of the 50 states, as well as in the territories of Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and the US Virgin Islands. Plus, all but four states are holding legislative elections, and voters will weigh in on 145 statewide ballot measures in states from coast to coast.

Republicans currently control the Senate 53-47, with the final Fox News Power Rankings ahead of Election Day rating the race for Senate control a toss-up. Both parties are three seats short of a majority, according to the forecast: Democrats are favoured in 48 seats and Republicans are ahead in 47. The GOP needs to hold 50 seats to retain control, since Republican Vice President JD Vance is the tie-breaking vote. If Democrats ride a blue wave, they could come away with up to 54 seats; if Republicans defy expectations, they could hold the majority with up to 52 seats.

Republicans are playing defence in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, South Carolina and Texas, all rated toss-ups, and are also defending seats in competitive races in Kansas, rated Lean Republican, and Ohio, rated Lean Democrat. Democrats are on defence in Michigan, a toss-up, and in Minnesota and New Hampshire, both listed as Lean Democrat.

The GOP is hanging on to a razor-thin majority in the House, and the Power Rankings point to the Democrats retaking control of the chamber. A good night for Democrats could see them end up with as many as 240 seats in the 435-seat chamber; a good night for Republicans could leave them with 212 seats — six short of a majority, but enough to make life difficult for the next Democratic Speaker. The earliest-closing districts will give some sense of the House's future: Fox News contributor Remy Numa, who steers the network's Power Rankings, points to Kentucky's 6th district, covering Lexington and a large central area of the state, where Trump won by 15 points in the last presidential election but where left-leaning college voters and farmers grappling with higher costs make it look close this cycle.

There are currently 26 Republican and 24 Democratic governors. Three states where the GOP controls the governor's office — Alaska, Nevada and Georgia — are rated toss-ups, as is Wisconsin, which has an open Democratic-controlled governor's office. The gubernatorial races in Florida, Kansas and Texas are rated Lean Republican, while four other competitive races are rated Lean Democrat: Arizona, Michigan and Oregon, where Democrats are playing defence, and Iowa and Ohio, where the GOP is defending open governor's offices.

Among the ballot measures, referendums requiring voters to present identification at the polls, or bans on noncitizen voting, are on the ballot in 11 states: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Kansas, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, South Dakota and West Virginia. Alaska voters will also decide whether to repeal the state's ranked-choice voting system, open primaries and a campaign finance disclosure rule — a system voters approved in 2020 and narrowly kept in 2024. Voters in Virginia will decide whether the right to vote should be restored to convicted felons upon their release.

California's Proposition 40 is making national headlines: the first-of-its-kind measure would impose a one-time 5 percent tax on wealth for Californians worth over 1 billion dollars, with the vast majority of the revenue going to pay for healthcare. Washington State voters will weigh in on a referendum to repeal a 9.9 percent tax on income over 1 million dollars a year. Voters in Maryland, Missouri and Colorado will decide ballot measures on congressional redistricting, while Missouri, Idaho, Virginia and Nevada voters decide measures related to abortion rights.

The first poll closings come at 6pm ET on Election Day, in parts of Kentucky and Indiana. Polls close in California and Washington State at 11pm ET, in all of Hawaii and most of Alaska at midnight ET, and the final polls close in the remaining parts of Alaska at 1am ET.