Lawler's closeness to Trump becomes a burden: New York's 17th district turns into a toss-up fight

Republican congressman Mike Lawler is in danger of losing his seat again. His support for many of President Donald Trump's policies has infuriated some of his constituents, and polls point to a tight race in New York's 17th congressional district in this year's midterms.

In the last two elections, Lawler, 40, defeated Democratic opponents in the district — one of the closest-run battlegrounds in this year's midterms. His tough-on-crime and affordability messaging helped him defeat a powerful Democrat in 2022 and flip the lower Hudson Valley district, an area that leans more favourably for Democrats than Republicans, for the first time since the mid-1980s.

His reputation as a Republican willing to work across the aisle earned him key labour unions' support in 2024 and convinced voters to keep him in office. Even former Democratic president Joe Biden praised Lawler in 2023 for being 'the kind of Republican I was used to dealing with' and 'not one of these Maga Republicans'. In October, local news outlet City & State New York quoted an unnamed former Republican party leader asking, 'What does it take for a Republican to win in NY-17? You need to be Mike Lawler.'

Lawler faces a new set of challenges this time, as sustained frustration over the cost of living, tied to the impact of Trump's war with Iran, looms large. Lawler voted against a resolution that aimed to rein in Trump's military action in Iran three times. He also supported Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which was expected to cause half a million New Yorkers to lose health insurance and cut funding for a hospital in the 17th district.

He defended Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers' actions after being confronted by angry constituents during a town hall in February, and highlighted his working relationship with Trump while rallying with the US president in Rockland county in May.

Cait Conley, Lawler's Democratic opponent, has pointed to the Republican lawmaker's proximity to Trump throughout her campaign, hoping to capitalise on voters disgruntled with the US president. 'What we have seen under this administration — enabled by my opponent, Mike Lawler, who continues to vote with Donald Trump on every issue that matters 100% of the time — is he has made lives for Hudson valley families harder, not better,' Conley told voters during a debate with Lawler earlier this month. 'You deserve a patriot, not a puppet,' she added.

Lawler was already facing a tough contest. The Cook Political Report moved New York's 17th congressional district from 'lean Republican' to 'toss-up' in January. While it leans +1 toward Democrats, polling has been unable to paint a clear picture. In an Emerson College Polling/PIX 11 survey of 400 likely voters, 48 percent said they would vote for Conley while 46 percent said they would vote for Lawler, with another 7 percent undecided. A McLaughlin & Associates poll, sponsored by Republicans, put Lawler at 50 percent and Conley at 47 percent. Both parties have poured millions of dollars into the race.

Conley, a veteran and former national security official, consistently posts online reminding people that Lawler is allied with Trump. Lawler, however, has broken with the president on some issues. Last year, he fought Trump to raise the cap for state and local tax (Salt) deductions. He urged the White House to extend temporary protected status for Haitian immigrants; New York's 17th district is home to a large population of Haitian immigrants. Most recently, he publicly opposed Trump's diesel deal with Russia, stating that 'not one penny' should go to Vladimir Putin.

'When I agree with the president, I'm willing to say it,' Lawler told reporters after a campaign event earlier this year. 'And when I disagree with him, I'm willing to say it.'

Lawler has tried to toe the line between challenging Trump on certain policies while remaining largely supportive of the US president's agenda. But his real strength as a candidate in previous elections was connecting with his constituents, who are also his lifelong neighbours, consistently hosting in-person town halls even when they turn contentious. In a district with a large population of Orthodox Jewish people, he has toured kosher shopping centres and introduced legislation to fight antisemitism. 'I've seen Lawler more times than I've seen my rabbi,' Yossi Gestetner, a registered Democrat in the district, told the New York Times in 2024.

Such strategies worked for Lawler in 2022 and 2024, and he appears to be leaning on them again this time. On Monday, he took a page from Trump's campaign book to work as a McDonald's employee in Haverstraw for a few hours. But should a blue wave sweep the country on Tuesday, Lawler's district will be front and centre. Whether his reputation is enough to convince voters to keep him in office remains to be seen. As Lawler himself recently told the Associated Press, 'Everybody who thinks they know what's going to happen in November I think is fooling themselves. This is not like any normal midterm.'