How the Iran War Helped Democrats Win the Midterms, Analysis Explains

The United States' defeat in the war against Iran and its economic consequences played a major role in the Democrats' victory in the midterm elections, according to an analysis.

The analysis says Iran's counter-response this week led to one of the most dramatic political turnarounds in modern American history. The Democrats have now won control of both chambers — the Senate and the House of Representatives — for the next two years.

In the analyst's view, the failure of the Iran war alone was not the reason for the Democrats' victory. Rather, the war reflected and amplified much of the discontent in American society, leading angry and fearful citizens to reject Trump's Republicans and support the Democrats.

The analysis says US President Donald Trump wrongly believed that war against Iran would bring the country to its knees and turn it into a vassal state of the United States and Israel.

But Iran survived, struck back at the United States, Israel and Arab lands, and brought the painful economic costs of war into every American home.

In the analyst's view, this humiliated Washington, as it revealed that America's military prowess — like Trump's behaviour and electoral promises — is erratic at best and ineffective at worst.

The analysis notes that the Iran war also set off a cascade of consequences that hurt every American and raised questions about national values such as democracy, equality and the rule of law.

Iran's move with the greatest impact on ordinary Americans was restricting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. That drove up the prices Americans paid for groceries, gasoline, diesel, travel, most imports and other everyday necessities.

The analysis notes that about 90 percent of voters said the cost of living was a major or crucial factor in how they voted.

The analysis says that even after months of brutal attacks on Iran's political leaders, infrastructure, civilian and economic sites and military installations, the United States and Israel could not force Iran to surrender.

Instead, Iran's counterattacks left US bases in the Arabian Peninsula and Jordan incapacitated or evacuated. Arab energy and transport systems suffered huge damage, global energy flows were disrupted and prices rose further.

In the analyst's view, the balance of the war became clear within the first few weeks — the pain the United States and Israel inflicted on Iran would be matched by pain in every household in the United States and in other countries that assisted in the attack on Iran.

The analysis says the Iran war also exposed serious flaws in American militarism, leaving ordinary Americans confused, frustrated and often humiliated.

It adds that Trump ignored Americans' repeatedly expressed opposition to attacking Iran. CBS exit polls confirmed that voters opposed the war, both for its futile militarism and for its impact on the economy.

In the analyst's view, the Trump administration's disdain for the law and for ordinary Americans' views angered many voters who take their constitutional rights more seriously. Many voters rejected the Republicans because, in their view, Trump did not sincerely keep his 2024 promise to end useless foreign wars.

The analysis says Trump attacked Iran without clear, consistent or credible strategic goals. His main stated reason for the attack was to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon — even though existing US and international inspections and intelligence assessments had repeatedly said such a prospect was not imminent.

In conclusion, the analyst argues that the Iran war was the event that brought the cost of war into Americans' daily lives and sharpened voters' anger against the Republicans in the midterm elections.