Despite the ban, Pakistan's imports from India have risen 69 percent

Formal trade with India is closed, border controls are tight and the fallout from military conflict has not yet faded. Yet under the pressure of reality, Pakistan is increasing imports from its neighbour. From July to September this year, Pakistan's imports from India rose by about 69 percent.

In April 2025, gunmen attacked Pahalgam in India-controlled Kashmir, killing 26 people. India blamed Pakistan for the incident, while Islamabad denied the allegation. In response, India suspended the historic Indus Waters Treaty. In a counter-move, Pakistan announced the closure of its airspace to India, a halt to movement through the Wagah border and the suspension of bilateral trade.

The following May, the two nuclear-armed countries exchanged missile and drone attacks. After four days of conflict, a ceasefire took effect on 10 May.

Even amid the military conflict and political sanctions, commercial contact between the two countries was not completely severed. According to Pakistan's central bank, the country paid 61.7 million dollars for imports from India between July and September 2026. In the same period the previous year the amount was 36.6 million dollars. In other words, import payments rose 69 percent in a year.

Medicines, pharmaceutical raw materials and various chemical products make up the bulk of the imports. According to Pakistan's official trade statistics, 96.2 percent of imports from India in the 2025-26 fiscal year were organic chemicals and pharmaceutical products.

Pakistani economists say the country's dependence on India for these products is significant. Sourcing raw materials from alternative countries could raise costs by 40 to 50 percent in some cases. That is why demand for Indian goods has not fallen despite the political ban.

Muhammad Zubair Motiwala, former head of Pakistan's Trade Development Authority, told Al Jazeera that Indian goods are entering Pakistan through third countries including Dubai and Malaysia. However, there is no confirmed public information on the specific supply routes or volumes of those goods.

Alongside trade, some positive events have also been seen in relations between the two countries. On 29 August, India sent back 25 Pakistani nationals, including fishermen, through the Wagah-Attari border.

In addition, at the SAFF Championship held in Dhaka last week, players of the India and Pakistan football teams were seen shaking hands before and after their match. Analysts see such cordial behaviour in the two countries' sporting arena in recent times as a positive sign that tensions are easing.

Experts say, however, that economic dependence and a few positive events do not guarantee a normalisation of relations between the two countries. Without an improvement in the political and security situation, the chance of formally restarting trade remains limited.