World cotton demand rises but Bangladesh imports and use fall on energy crisis, Vietnam moves ahead

Demand for cotton is rising on the world market, but production is not keeping pace. With a supply shortfall and falling global stocks, international cotton prices are feared to rise. In Bangladesh, one of the world's largest cotton importers, the picture is the opposite: both cotton use and imports are falling.

The figures come from the November 2026 'Cotton: World Markets and Trade' report of the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), obtained from a compilation by Bangladesh Apparel Voice (BAV).

According to the USDA's November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), world cotton use in the 2026-27 marketing year could reach 122.75 million bales, against a production forecast of 117.48 million bales — meaning use could exceed production by about 5.27 million bales.

Global stocks are also shrinking. Ending stocks at the close of the current marketing year could fall from 75.64 million bales the previous year to 70.57 million bales, the lowest in 15 years. Unless yields rise significantly in major producing countries, upward pressure on international cotton prices could build in the coming months.

The USDA has lowered its forecasts for both cotton use and imports in Bangladesh for 2026-27. Use is put at 7.4 million bales and imports at 7.2 million bales. Use was 8.2 million bales in 2024-25, meaning consumption in the country is on course to fall by about 800,000 bales within two years.

According to analysis by Mohiuddin Rubel, founder and chief executive officer (CEO) of Bangladesh Apparel Voice, the main reason for the fall in cotton use is the energy crisis. Factories did not get enough gas through the summer because of falling domestic gas production, disruption to liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the Middle East and a fire at an LNG terminal.

As a result, many spinning mills produced far below capacity. Output at some factories fell below 30 percent of capacity, while some shut down completely. With cotton demand down, importers also cut back their purchases.

To protect the local spinning industry, the government recently decided to introduce a bank guarantee system instead of duty-free bond facilities for importing yarn of 10 to 30 counts. But without uninterrupted energy, local mills cannot take advantage of the policy support, while garment exporters also face the pressure of higher input costs.

The USDA forecasts Bangladesh's ending cotton stocks for 2026-27 at 1.62 million bales, about 22 percent of the country's annual use. Gas supply has improved somewhat since the summer crisis but remains below demand, and the closure of an LNG terminal for maintenance from November 4 to 7 brought the uncertainty back into focus.

In Rubel's view, until spinning mills are assured reliable and uninterrupted gas supply, government policy support to raise local yarn production will not play much of a role in increasing cotton demand.

In contrast to Bangladesh, cotton use in Vietnam is rising steadily. The USDA forecasts both use and imports in Vietnam at about 8.3 million bales in 2026-27. The country's ending stocks are 1.03 million bales, about 12 percent of its annual use.

Cotton use in Vietnam was 8 million bales in 2024-25, rose to 8.15 million bales the following year and is expected to reach 8.3 million bales in 2026-27. Over the same period, use in Bangladesh fell from 8.2 million bales to 7.4 million bales. According to the report, efficient ports and supply management let Vietnam keep imports and use running on relatively low stocks, while Bangladesh's spinning industry cannot use its capacity because of the energy crisis.